France: A fractured country and a second dead end

CLAUDE PATRIAT Professor of Political Science, University of Bourgogne, University of Bourgogne – UBFC

As expected, the vote on April 10 did not pursue the situation provoked by the failure of Emmanuel Macron in 2017 in the fragile structure of the system of parties. On the contrary. Lejos de estabilizar un nuevo orden politico, la primera vuelta desvela un incierto paisaje lunar del que parecen quedar excluidos los antiguos partidos del Gobierno, tanto a la derecha como a izquierda: hace cinco años, con Benoît% Hamon con un it was the Socialist Party that led the way; now have all the money in Los Republicanos, divided between Emmanuel Macron and Eric Zemmour, and which is based on the debate of 5%, while the Socialist Party, superado by Jean Lassalle and Fabien Roussel, consume the punctuation more than his history, with less than 2%.

It is considered a terrible descent into the infernals in France of the greatness of paradise, paradoxically, the parties that are sure to be due to the level of play at the local level are separated from the national level.

Deadly triangle

In a reform of the political institutions, revitalizing the equilibrium of power and favoring the conditions for a fully democratic representation, the fact that the implantable power of the presidential election has become important in the work of the guillotine itself, in an ambient environment. with resignation.

Entre el fuego cruzado, basado en el voto util o el voto refugio, y el voto de protesta, la antigua bipolarización derecha / izquierda ha pasado de moda.

At the moment, the votes were added to the top three points: an extreme of the right, with 32.29% of the votes, 1.6 million more than in 2017; a radical choice polo, self-proclaimed by Mélenchon as a popular union, with 22%; y un polo central en torno al presidente en funciones, que recibió el 27,84% de los votos.

Alrededor de este último, aislado en medio de las arenas movedizas, un habitat disperso para los jirones de los partidos no alineados con los polos: Roussel, Jadot, Pécresse o Hidalgo sólo suman el 13,45% (4 727 073 votos). Sólo Valérie Pécresse, al bajar a 1 679 470, perdió 5 533 525 de los votos recogidos por François Fillon.

Los republicanos, atrapados entre la extrema derecha y Emmanuel Macron, se han visto por tanto especialmente afectados por el naufragio: han sido desviados por estos dos polos. An event similar to the curiosity of environmentalists and socialists, some collaterals of the sirens of the Vatican’s use of songs by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Expected spectacles

This is a game of communication vases, some of them are especially spectacular: of the two candidates, only three percent of them, I want to be next to 10% and eye, 5%. There are 15 separate points in the third quarter! The extravagance of a political camp and a full recomposition, with coherence with the local political landscape, is different. We record that in 2017 the first few candidates will be present in a panel.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon was able to sum up more results than suggested by the polls, but he also tried important things to expect: with 21.95%, up from 655,000 votes in 2017 (+5.97%). The contribution of a vote of environmentalists and socialists is not sufficient to compensate for the handicap that the presence of the communist antiquity can assume, which is what he has done in solitario: he has agreed to support 421,000 votes in Marine Le Pen.

Emmanuel Macron, in exchange, lodged in the air, avant-garde to his main rival in a box of four points. With 27.84% of votes, the best result for 2017 is more than 1 130 000 votes (+ 13%). In Marine Le Pen, with 23.15% of the consensus, thanks to an intelligent use of the vote, superior to the handicap of a candidacy Zemmour and advancing more than 450,000 votes in respect of the front election (+5.96 %).

Voting transfers

El camino hacia la segunda ronda está lleno de incertidumbres y escollos. Because the game that is the point of play is completely complete. Está, por supuesto, la designaçón del ocupante del sillón presidencial. But more than that, it is a question of the effectiveness of the institutions and their ability to respond to the expectations of a profoundly divided and fractured country.

The result of the first round is a false clarity about the result of the second. This tripolar crystal clear antagonism differs from what is one of the essential elements of the dynamics of a second world: the transferences of votes.

Marine Le Pen will not be able to overdo it because it is the point of view, and the texture of the extreme vote is homogeneous and the other candidates for the field, Eric Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, are surprised and in good condition. the vote for her. Además, dada la actitud del numero 2 en las primarias de Los Republicanos (LR), Éric Ciotti, partidario de la derecha dura, puede esperar una parte de los votos recognizos por Valérie Pécresse.

And the pastel guinea, in the brand of a spice of “all men Macron”, could benefit from the votes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is also the ultimate llamó varias veces el domingo por la noche a no “dar ni un solo voto” to the extreme right (you are sure to give an instruction to Emmanuel Macron’s favorite).

A great campaign for Emmanuel Macron

Front of these two blocs for the common hospitality of the presidential candidate, Emmanuel Macron, does not have the potential potential missions. It is believed that Anne Hidalgo, Valérie Pécresse, Yannick Jadot and Fabien Roussel have a strong company and have to vote for him. But the potential is sure to be escaped, supposed to be disciplined. Tendrá que luchar mucho para atraer hacia él los votantes de izquierda que habrán votado a Mélenchon para evitar demasiada desgracia en su campo. I just want to play with participation and create a dynamic between the abstentions of the first world. This participation is mediocre: only the two points that were in 2002 and four of them in 2017. For the sake of it, let’s wait for a drink.

It is related to the second dimension of the electorate: the democratic effect in the functioning of the institutions. Because there is a lack of trust in the elegant representatives. From now on, there are some opportunities that will take place on April 24 in France. The risk that the legitimacy of the ganador is high.

The years that have been demonstrated in the past have demonstrated that the elections are very brilliant, but they are not able to guarantee the consent of the politician. Será necesario inventar un modo de gobierno que rompa el estancamiento en el que la illusion presidencialista ha sumido al país durante decadas.

The horizons are very different, in place of reducing presidential and human rights, the legislation in proportion to permitting pluralism and the diversity of representative opinions. And the functioning of the institutions is more respectable with the power of money. Fue un grave error del quinquenio ahorrarse esta reforma. Now he will pay the price.

Emmanuel Macron said he was aware that he had declared the night of the first return:

“We have a new inventory to convict convictions and various sensibilities.”

The lack of media to act intermittently, the one who intends to be able to convene in the community of money as a procedure to save from this vertical practice and concentrate in the development of power.

Al leer los los resultados de la primera ronda, el ejercicio promete ser peligroso. Danton said that he was enthusiastic about founding a Republic. It is also a conservative property.

This article has been published in ‘The Conversation’.

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