Colombia: very vigorous

Colombia is dominated by March 13 in the framework of the legislative framework, and in parallel has advised on how to protect the presidential candidates from each of the three partisan coalitions: the Historical Pact, the Colombian Team and the Coalition Center Esperanza.

Elected to the Senate of the Republic 108 senators, to the Chamber of Representatives, 188 parliamentarians. The senators are by national, in exchange, representatives of the 32 departments and the Capital District; from the circuses of the communities of aphrodisiacs, one of the circuits of the indigenous communities, one of the raisins of the islands of San Andrés and Providence, one of the international circuits, and one of the communes of the Commonwealth, as a curriculum for the vice-presidential formula that occupies the second place in the presidential elections.

Additionally, in this situation, the representatives of the representatives -diputados- of the victories of the conflict are elevated.

Ante is a complete elevator, there are various possible scenarios, there are many things to do, because there are many elements in the game.

The first element is the possibility to be present in the parliamentary election and in the consultations, to be heard in the arrogance of the political consultants, the “vigorous vote”, to say, here is the vote of the city that has decided to decide, but that, in public, the best result can be achieved, it can be socially powdered to be criticized, and that your decision is tomada, but not expressed.

This vote is most likely to be recorded in the votes of the partisan consultants – the Historical Pact, the Colombian Team and the Coalition of the Center of Hope – especially in the vote that will be supported by the Historical Pact. In exchange, in the election of the Parliament, the mayor will be the protagonist of the local machinists, the regional political members and the interests of the leaders of the regions.

It is as if the hypotheses of the vote were confirmed, in the election of the Parliament, the Historical Pact will be made in the case of minorities, and leaders in consultations. It is possible that this move is 50% more than the team from Colombia.

The conformation of the Congress is very variopinta, so it is clear that it is not up to you to tend to the mayors; and the parties as the Democratic Center, Liberal, Conservative, Radical Camp, the U – Social Party of the National Unity, Polo Democracy, Green, possibly reducing the number of currencies compared to the 2018 election.

With the implementation of interpartist consultations, the number of candidates for the Presidency will be reduced. Any indication that, in these consultations, Gustavo Petro is impressed with the convenience of the Historical Pact; Federico Gutiérrez, who is the owner of the Team for Colombia, among other things, because of the Democratic Center party that he has as a candidate for the Oscar Iván Zuluaga Sergio Fajardo has a high profile with the nomination.

Additionally, I am also a member of the Presidential Presidency, Rodolfo Hernández, Ingrid Betancourt and Oscar Iván Zuluaga. El primero ha logrado estar de segundo en las encuestas, pero, al obtener pocos parlamentarios en la contienda del domingo, se irá diluyendo en la medida que avance la campaña. Betancourt, with a short, erratic campaign, and recurring scales, also diluting; lo mismo pasará a Zuluaga, solo que, en este caso, ya viene sucediendo, tal vez, porque su partido est apoyando a Gutiérrez.

Con este escenario, la hypothesesis e que al final, en la primera vuelta -29 de mayo- en la papeleta electoral quedarán compitiendo effektivente 4 candidatos.

Ahora bien, qu por qué es importante observar la composición del Congreso?

Hay partisos que, además de estar relativamente cerca ideologígicamente, también lo pudieran estar programmatically in funcón de una vision de país, posición que se contrapone a la vision de quien hoy lidera las encuestas, Gustavo Petro, con lo cualie pudiera darse o solapado- tan temprano como en la primera vuelta, hacia Federico Gutiérrez, para intentar frenar la posibilidad de que Gustavo Petro pueda ganar en primera vuelta, justo por ese voto vergonzante que mencionamos al principio.

If this hypothesis is confirmed, the displacement of the variants of the hacie Gutiérrez in the first place, the strategy of starting with Petro, is not about to have to do, because it depends on the quality of the strategy. If you want to hyperpolarize the country and attack Petro, you can end up with a boomerang, which is what the hell is going on.

Why do we say that? The work of Gustavo Petro is in moderation of its discourse and its achievements – but it is clear that it is moderated by the strategy of conventions, to open the doors of movement and allow the entrance of the diversity of political, social, companies, but, this is, keeping a discipline in the message and action, for the sake of it, if you attack with ferrocide, be a victim of sacrifice and vote vigorously to increase the level you want to take care of in the first place.

Ahora bien, si la estrategia de Gutiérrez es planteada desde el contrasta, sin aggressiones ni estridencias, y ocurre el alineamiento de varias fuerzas, es posible, que entonces le alcance para forzar la segunda vuelta.

In all cases, more than 38 million Colombians have the opportunity to be the protagonists of their destiny. This election, llamada por algunos la vuelta cero, aclarará un poco más el complejo panorama politico que vive Colombia.

Political consultant; on Twitter: @orlandogoncal.


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